I have been following our election rather closely over the past month. Last week I came to the conclusion that this presidential race is officially over. I refrained from making any declarations for fear of sabotaging the outcome, but then realized that I'm not superstitious. Obama wins big. Anytime you hear pundits talking about Indiana being a possible swing state, you know that there is a lopsided victory in the making. It will be pretty historic, and McCain is digging himself into a deeper and deeper hole by going negative. Essentially he's saying: "I have no real economic plan, well, wait–I have a plan, but it's for the rich, and I can't get elected on that plan, so I'm going to attack the character of my opponent to try to cast some doubt." Maybe his campaign is confusing tactics with strategy. They trot out a lot of tactics, but they seem to have no real strategy.
One week it's about the economy, the next it's about character, then it's about abortion, and this week it will be about experience. But it's all based on fear, and I think people are tired of hearing it. I look for the McCain campaign to trot out about two or three more tactics before this is over, and I don't think it will make much difference. Their decisions have proven disastrous to the campaign, making Obama's look consistent and stable.
According to the polls (and my new favorite projection site, fivethirtyeight.com), McCain will have to win ALL of the swing states up for grabs, and then a current projected blue state or two to win. Thanks to Obama, McCain now has to spend a lot of time in traditionally red Virginia and NC, which cuts into his appearances in other swing states.
Overcoming a double-digit deficit late in the game isn't impossible, but it hasn't been done since Reagan over Carter in 1980, and that was the ONLY time since Gallup polling (1936) that it happened this late in the season. It looks like Obama's riding a wave that's bashing McCain. No matter what the Maverick does, he buries himself deeper. Where's Goose?
It's over, folks.
